Coking coals for metallurgy ‒ trends and prospects up to 2050

Abstract

In 2022, the development of the global energy sector, including the coking coal market, has undergone significant transformations. Russia ranks only fourth in this market, exporting just over 32.7 million tons of coking coal. Russia has huge reserves of coking coals, many of their deposits can be developed and some of which have already started production. The article analyzes the coking coal market: production, consumption, import and export of coking coal in the main countries of the world and Russia in the period 2000‒2022. The crisis situation in 2022 in metallurgy and coking coal consumption is mainly caused not only by the sanctions policy and the decline in coking coal prices, but also by the decarbonization of the metallurgical industry, which has already actively started, and which in the future will lead to a complete refusal to use coal in metallurgy. The forecasts of coking coal consumption in the main countries of the world and Russia in the period up to 2050 depending on the rates of decarbonization of the world economy and metallurgical industry, taking into account the sanctions restrictions and embargoes on Russian coal have been developed. It is shown that coking coal producers in Russia are likely to face a drop in demand in the domestic market, and it is unlikely that they will be able to switch to the external market, as the demand there will also decrease. In order to prevent an unstable socio-economic situation as a result of a decrease in production volumes and, consequently, the income of enterprises, it is advisable for Russian coking coal producers to begin first about finding coking coal consumers, and in the future ‒ about diversification of production