Cointegration Test and Projection of Total Rubber and Tin Production and Their Effect on The Environment in Province of Bangka Belitung Island

Abstract

The cointegration test in this study aims to see the long-term balance relationship between the amount of rubber and tin production produced in the Province of Bangka Belitung Islands. This time series test uses historical data from 2002-2015. In addition to seeing the cointegration relationship, it will also be seen how the projection results are produced until 2025. This cointegration test results that the amount of rubber and tin production produced in the Province of Bangka Belitung Islands does not have a significant relationship between the two variables as evidenced by a probability value of 0.1366. The probability value that is greater than 5% of the alpha level means that these two variables are independent of each other and the projection results show that tin and rubber production has an upward trend from 2016-2025. The projected value of tin production is not as high as the projection value of rubber plantations with a percentage difference of 11.67%. It is also time for the community to develop the plantation sector and move away from the mining sector which has been undertaken in line with the increasing environmental damage that has been generated.