Cointegration analysis of US space activity and its environmental impact

Abstract

Space activities are known for releasing different kinds of pollutants into the atmosphere. This study employs cointegration and error-correction techniques to explore the environmental impacts of U.S. space activity over both short and long terms. The findings reveal a long-run relationship between space activity and the environment. In the short run, except for biocapacity, space activity shows no significant impact on the environment according to the error-correction model analysis. In the long run, noteworthy relationships emerge, such as the launch of objects correlating with an increased ecological footprint and a decline in ozone concentration, and both objects and space debris contributing to reduced ozone concentration. Specifically, the estimates indicate that a one-percent increase in launches increases footprint by 0.07%, whereas a one-percent increase in object launches and space debris reduces the ozone concentration by 2.231% and 0.499%, respectively. The impulse response functions analysis affirms a predominantly permanent negative impact of space activity on the environment, jeopardizing environmental sustainability. Additionally, two crucial breakeven points are identified: space debris initially increases (i.e. deteriorates) the ecological footprint for the first 9 years before permanently improving footprint, while it initially enhances the ozone concentration for about 6 years before causing a lasting detrimental effect on the ozone layer.