COIN in the Real World

Abstract

The nations most likely to be affected by insurgencies, those without extensive resources, refined organization, or a responsible political environment, need a more realistic counterinsurgency (COIN) strategy than that articulated in classic and contemporary counterinsurgency theory. The former authors wrote exclusively from a colonial perspective, (1) while the latter write overwhelmingly on the experiences of foreign powers abroad. (2) The officials and security forces of affected nations intuitively emphasize the same themes found in theory: intergovernmental coordination and cooperation, rule of law, prioritizing political vice security-based solutions, and establishing a stable electoral state. These themes are often difficult to translate into reality because nations suffer from fundamental flaws that make implementing the best practices and solutions virtually impossible. A successful counterinsurgency strategy cannot be deferred until a nation rectifies its flaws; it needs to operate within the existing framework. This article will explore the specific impediments to planning and implementing a successful COIN strategy in these nations and conclude with recommendations for more realistic COIN policies. Most insurgencies are combated by nations such as India and Thailand, each of whom is currently waging, without external assistance, counterinsurgencies within their borders. Typical COIN operations take place in post-colonial or multiethnic countries with long histories of insurgency outside the North American and Western European geopolitical arenas. These nations are sufficiently large and influential, or they have reputations for treating insurgents with enough respect to meet conventional human fights standards, to deflect any international protest as to how their counterinsurgency is conducted. This status ensures that the nation cannot be saved by international interference, nor would it find it necessary to invite a more influential nation to assist its efforts. These countries are cooperative members of international organizations and generally make an effort to adhere, or appear to adhere, to the basic tenets of international behavior. They usually do not shun cooperation and participation with regional or international organizations, finding it expedient to join global causes and adhere to global norms. These governments want to be a part of the greater international society, though they are rarely capable of a leadership role. Counterinsurgency literature is almost always produced by nations that possess a fair amount of wealth and strong institutions. The authors come from places that are invariably democracies with strict human rights standards and which rarely face insurgencies within their own borders. The middle-power nations that are most likely to conduct counterinsurgency campaigns, however, have uncooperative and ineffective governmental institutions. They often are characterized by limited resources and relaxed human rights standards. Middle-power nations can be overly belligerent, internally uncoordinated, and poorly governed. Their flaws overlap and reinforce, rendering proper planning and adherence difficult, while efficient resolution is nearly impossible. The flaws are produced by deficiencies in government, and because these deficiencies contribute to multiple omissions and violations, it is far easier to examine problems in structure, rather than identifying the roots of specific defects. Such defects are generally found in one of three areas: basic institutional weakness, state structure, and excessive influence by an elite. Prominent Examples Thailand and India are regularly cited in this article as prime examples of nations suffering these defects. India is facing a decades-long Maoist insurgency that stretches across more than a dozen states and has resulted in more than 500 deaths annually since 2003. Unknown insurgents in the southern reaches of Thailand have been fighting the government since 2004 over cultural dominance of the Malay Muslim provinces. …