Cohort splitting from plastic bet-hedging: insights from empirical and theoretical investigations in a wolf spider

Abstract

Bet-hedging strategies help organisms to decrease variance in their fitness in unpredictably changing environments, by which way lineage fitness can be maximized in the given environment. As one strategy, diversified bet-hedging helps to achieve that by increasing phenotypic variation in fitness-related traits. For example, in diversified tracking, parents may divide the developmental phenotypes of their offspring within broods, leading to cohort splitting among the progeny. Such diversification, though, should be probabilistic and sensitive to no external stimuli. However, it was recently highlighted that plasticity in response to environmental stimuli may be part of a more dynamic case of bet-hedging. Current understanding and empirical observations of such a plastic bet-hedging remain limited. Here I use a theoretical investigation relying on empirical grounds in a specific case of cohort splitting in the wolf spider Pardosa agrestis (Westring 1861). I investigated whether cohort splitting might be a bet-hedging strategy in females of P. agrestis, and whether it would be expected to be static or plastic bet-hedging. Results show that cohort splitting is likely a bet-hedging strategy in this species, by which females maximize their lineage fitness. Also, cohort splitting appears to arise from plastic bet-hedging, as in simulated populations where both static and plastic bet-hedging females occur, the latter have considerably higher geometric mean fitness. I discuss theoretical and empirical observations in light of the current theory, and draw predictions on specific aspects of this case of plastic bet-hedging.