Abstract

The article is a follow-up and an extension to previously published papers by Holzer-Żelażewska & Holzer (1997) and Holzer-Żelażewska & Tymicki (2009). Fristly, we have added new cohorts to the cohort analysis based on the individual data from births registration for the years 2009–2015. Secondly, we have extended the scope of the study by taking into account the context of postponement and recuperation to analyses of cohort fertility of Polish women.
 The approach applied to the fertility postponement and recuperation on the cohort data refers to the method which was originally proposed by Frejka (2011) and Lesthaeghe (2001) and further developed by Sobotka et al. (Sobotka et al., 2011). This method allows for calculation of fertility postponement and recuperation measures with respect to a benchmark cohort chosen as the one that first experiences an onset of the increase in the mean age of motherhood at first birth.
 The results show the remarkable changes in the fertility patterns in Poland. The main driving forces behind the change in fertility patterns in Poland are related to the postponement of first births along with a relatively good recuperation. The magnitude of recuperation for Polish cohorts dropped significantly for second births and was almost non-existent for third and higher births. Therefore, the pattern of fertility in Poland observed till 2015 could be characterized by postponement and recuperation of first births along with a significant decrease in second births with perpetual postponement of third and higher births.

Highlights

  • This article is a follow-up to the analysis published by Holzer-Żelażewska & Holzer in 1997 and Holzer-Żelażewska & Tymicki in 2009, which focused on changes in fertility of women who were born in 1930–1990 and who gave births in the years 1945–2008

  • We believe that the presented analyses contribute to a better understanding of fertility changes in Poland

  • The above-mentioned studies based on registration of births constitute the only regularly updated source of cohort fertility rates

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Summary

Introduction

This article is a follow-up to the analysis published by Holzer-Żelażewska & Holzer in 1997 and Holzer-Żelażewska & Tymicki in 2009, which focused on changes in fertility of women who were born in 1930–1990 and who gave births in the years 1945–2008. The main advantage of the presented cohort analyses is the application of unified entry data (from registration of births) and use of the methodology which allows us to analyse occurring changes on comparable rates. This is an important contribution since the calculation of cohort fertility rates for the whole period after the Second World War was not easy, due to the fact that not all of the detailed data was available and because the live birth definition changed over time. The paper presents some remarks on data quality issues, mostly related to the possible impact of migration on the underestimation of both cohort and period fertility rates in Poland, followed by a discussion of changes in the cohort fertility trends before and after 1989 in the context of the tempo, quantum and recuperation effects

Data and methods
Cohort total fertility rates
Postponment and recuperation of cohort fertility
Findings
Discussion

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