Cognitive reflection vs. calculation in decision making.

Aleksandr Sinayev,Ellen Peters

doi:10.3389/fpsyg.2015.00532

Abstract

Scores on the three-item Cognitive Reflection Test (CRT) have been linked with dual-system theory and normative decision making (Frederick, 2005). In particular, the CRT is thought to measure monitoring of System 1 intuitions such that, if cognitive reflection is high enough, intuitive errors will be detected and the problem will be solved. However, CRT items also require numeric ability to be answered correctly and it is unclear how much numeric ability vs. cognitive reflection contributes to better decision making. In two studies, CRT responses were used to calculate Cognitive Reflection and numeric ability; a numeracy scale was also administered. Numeric ability, measured on the CRT or the numeracy scale, accounted for the CRT's ability to predict more normative decisions (a subscale of decision-making competence, incentivized measures of impatient and risk-averse choice, and self-reported financial outcomes); Cognitive Reflection contributed no independent predictive power. Results were similar whether the two abilities were modeled (Study 1) or calculated using proportions (Studies 1 and 2). These findings demonstrate numeric ability as a robust predictor of superior decision making across multiple tasks and outcomes. They also indicate that correlations of decision performance with the CRT are insufficient evidence to implicate overriding intuitions in the decision-making biases and outcomes we examined. Numeric ability appears to be the key mechanism instead.

Highlights

Scores on the three-item Cognitive Reflection Test (CRT) have been linked with dual-system theory and normative decision-making patterns (Frederick, 2005)
These exclusion criteria could be considered conservative, meaning that some inattentive participants may have given responses that did not exhibit a clear pattern. To allow for this possibility, we conducted robust regressions. These results mirror the results reported in the main text, but account for the possibility that a relatively small portion of the sample may score high on Cognitive Reflection and have large decision biases, whereas the trend in the rest of the sample is the opposite
Cognitive Reflection and Calculation behaved like distinct abilities, and Calculation was positively correlated with numeracy

Summary

Introduction

Scores on the three-item Cognitive Reflection Test (CRT) have been linked with dual-system theory and normative decision-making patterns (Frederick, 2005). The CRT is thought to measure monitoring of System 1 intuitions such that, if cognitive reflection is high enough, intuitive errors will be detected and the problem will be solved. CRT items require numeric ability to be answered correctly. We examined whether the CRT was predictive of superior decision making because it measures the ability to check intuitions and/or the ability to solve numeric calculations. The CRT is a popular three-item test (Frederick, 2005) thought to assess cognitive reflection because the items bring to mind intuitive but wrong solutions that have to be overridden.

Methods

Results

Conclusion