Cognitive Biases in Commercial Aviation: Empirical Review of Accident Reports

Abstract

Cognitive biases in commercial aviation can coax pilots into disregarding established protocols or overlooking potential hazards, a concern that the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) has acknowledged. However, the concrete impact of these biases on aviation operations has not been adequately quantified; empirical evidence remains limited. Recognizing this research gap, our study seeks to provide a comprehensive analysis of cognitive biases within commercial aviation. We conducted a review of National Transportation Safety Board flight incident reports for air carriers across the United States, from 2014 to 2024. We also conducted an expert interview with an instructor who is an experienced pilot to ascertain current training material and its adequacy in addressing cognitive biases. Our analysis revealed cognitive biases not identified by the FAA (e.g., overconfidence) and training material gaps. Our research lays the groundwork for improved training protocols and the potential for a more nuanced understanding of pilot behavior and safety.