Cofinancing and infrastructure project outcomes in Chinese lending and overseas development finance

Abstract

Cofinancing from government agencies, development banks, and private actors is acknowledged as an important tool to bridge the infrastructure finance gap in developing countries, but relatively little is known about outcomes for cofinanced projects. To fill this void, we explore the role of cofinancing in shaping Chinese lending and overseas development finance for infrastructure projects in terms of implementation outcomes and environmental performance. We examine a sample of 2997 infrastructure projects committed between 2000 and 2017 that were funded by Chinese finance, among which 15 percent are cofinanced. Our study shows that cofinancing correlates with higher infrastructure project completion rates, as cofinanced projects are 3.3–7.1 percentage points less likely to be cancelled or suspended than non-cofinanced ones. We also find that cofinancing with certain partners suggests specific benefits. Cofinancing with partners from the recipient country is associated with more localized implementation, whereas cofinancing with international partners has demonstrated improved environmental performance, with a 2.7 percent lower carbon dioxide emissions intensity and a 0.42 standard deviation decrease in biodiversity risks. The results suggest that cofinancing could be an effective tool to enhance infrastructure project success and achieve greater sustainable performance in Chinese lending and overseas development finance.