Abstract
In the peace and conflict literature, a ceasefire is often conceived as an event or an outcome of an armed conflict. In this paper, I argue that we can gain a better understanding of ceasefires by approaching them as dynamic processes of change and by exploring patterns of interactions and changing relationships in the context of ceasefire. I use this approach in a case study of the ceasefire between the government of the Philippines and the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) in Mindanao. I suggest that the Mindanao ceasefire can be conceptualized as a form of “coexistence ceasefire,” and I trace the development of the particular ceasefire structure and interactions to features of the armed conflict, including its territorial dimension and the presence of multiple sources of violence. The paper contributes a new and more nuanced way of studying ceasefires that provides a better understanding of their characteristics and dynamics and of how they shape and in turn are shaped by the broader conflict landscape.
Highlights
On January 25, 2015, the government of the Philippines sanctioned a raid for a wanted international terrorist in Mamasapano in the Philippines’ southernmost province of Mindanao
This paper aims to make a contribution to the literature on ceasefires by providing a new and more nuanced way of approaching ceasefires, which gives us a better understanding of their characteristics, dynamics, and implications
By broadening the scope of analysis, the study at the same time points to the limitations of a ceasefire in terms of contributing to conflict transformation and underscores the fact that ceasefires are inherently volatile. Both the conflict and the peace process remain in limbo as multiple partial agreements are fused together within the prolonged ceasefire, holding Mindanao in a state of “no war, no peace.”[11]. This context has over time been conducive to the creation of additional armed groups in the area, posing further challenges for a peace process between the government and the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) to contribute to broader conflict transformation
Summary
On January 25, 2015, the government of the Philippines sanctioned a raid for a wanted international terrorist in Mamasapano in the Philippines’ southernmost province of Mindanao. The study shows that, through continuous joint engagement within the ceasefire structure, the parties have over time developed a coexistence relationship based on cooperation on the resolution of conflicts and mutual respect and trust These patterns have been produced in the context of a territorial. By broadening the scope of analysis, the study at the same time points to the limitations of a ceasefire in terms of contributing to conflict transformation and underscores the fact that ceasefires are inherently volatile Both the conflict and the peace process remain in limbo as multiple partial agreements are fused together within the prolonged ceasefire, holding Mindanao in a state of “no war, no peace.”[11] This context has over time been conducive to the creation of additional armed groups in the area, posing further challenges for a peace process between the government and the MILF to contribute to broader conflict transformation
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