Co-developing a data and knowledge portal to support stakeholder risk assessments with uncertain, global, multi-model based information on hydrological hazards of climate change

Abstract

<p>Successful adaptation to climate change worldwide will require many local climate change risk assessments. However, appropriate and tailored climate services and information tools are lacking, particularly in developing countries. Co-produced, user-driven climate services are a recognized means for effective generation and provisioning of relevant climate information and support the utilization by decision-makers, enabling them to account for climate change in their risk portfolios. In the CO-MICC project (ERA4CS), a data and knowledge portal is co-developed with stakeholders based on global-scale multi-model simulations of hydrological variables. In a participatory manner, we focussed on (1) eliciting the relevant hydrological hazard indicators, (2) representing their uncertainty quantitatively in a way that is both scientifically correct and utilizable to the diverse users of the hazard information, and (3) creating guidance on how to integrate the uncertain global information into regional-scale assessments of water-related climate change risk and adaptation assessments. Adapting the tandem framework of the Swedish Environmental Institute (SEI), participatory stakeholder dialogues including seven workshops with stakeholders from focus regions in Europe and Northern Africa, and finally with globally-acting companies serve to integrate the various experiences, needs and expectations of various regions and users. Participants included local researchers, experts from meteorological services and decision-makers from regional and national hydrological agencies. Together, we co-produced relevant model output variables and appropriate end-user products encompassing static and dynamically generated information in a web portal. The global-scale information products include interactive maps, diagrams, time series graphs, and suitably co-developed statistics, with appropriate visualization of uncertainty. In complement, the knowledge tool provides transparent meta-information, tutorials and handbook guidelines to utilize the provided information in models of local participatory risk assessments. While CO-MICC enables access to this information to a broad range of stakeholders from around the world (policy makers, NGOs, the private sector, the research community, the public in general) for their region of interest, it additionally sheds light on the optimal design and methods of co-development processes.</p>