COCAINE AND HEROIN IN EUROPE 1983-93: A Cross-national Comparison of Trafficking and Prices

Abstract

Drug law enforcement aims to reduce the consumption of illicit drugs through reducing supply and increasing prices. Data on cocaine and heroin seizures, prices, and methods of trafficking are presented for 1983—93. Seizures, giving some indirect indicator of trafficking, rose sharply for both drugs in the second half of the the 1980s. Prices of both drugs showed a decline across the decade, and the prices of both drugs seemed to track each other. Data on the primary means of transport of cocaine and heroin into Europe lends support to an explanation of the price patterns in terms of the risk factors these impose for traffickers. The nature of the trafficking, and the mechanism by which enforcement of trafficking laws is intended to impact upon the problem, suggest that the rapid substitution ofinterdicted traffickers and routes is highly likely, and that present levels of enforcement will have little deterrent or preventive impact. While the European drug scene is changing rapidly, not least due to political changes, the analysis may retain some general applicability. The aim of drug control law enforcement is to reduce the supply of illicit drugs and increase the price in order to reduce consumption. Via a reduction in consumption it is assumed that social cost is reduced. This paper presents trends in the prices of cocaine and heroin in Europe from 1983 to 1993, in the context of the amounts of those drugs reported seized by law enforcement agencies and the means of transport of the drugs. Variations in the price of a good are one of the most commonly used indicators of the working of market mechanisms. Price variations for the drugs are explained in terms of the activity of law enforcement agents and traffickers, and of factors that distinguish illicit drug price systems from those of licit markets. Some of the implications for present practices are n6t encouraging. However, the best way to begin to tackle a problem is to recognize it and try to gain some understanding. The data sources are reviewed, followed by a brief description of trends in cocaine and heroin seizures and their interpretation with respect to drug supply. This gives the context for the development of the drug price analyses. The paper does not contain the balancing demand-side information against which the price equilibriums would be reached, but this does not preclude any interpretation of the present data: it may be a possibility for furthering the work contained herein. The trends in European prices are placed in the context of, and contrasted to, the US market and the hazard imposed by law enforcement upon the trafficking of illicit drugs. The paper concludes with a discussion of implications and possibilities for further research.