Co-benefits of air pollution control and climate change mitigation strategies in Pakistan

Abstract

Pakistan’s urban air pollution is among the world's worst, wreaking havoc on public health and the economy. Although the country’s environmental protection act and the climate change act recognize the dual challenges of air pollution and climate change, it lacks an integrated national strategy to manage both simultaneously. Based on simulations with the GAINS model (an integrated assessment model) through soft coupling with the EnerNEO Pakistan model (an energy-economic model), we assess the benefits of climate policies and air pollution control measures on air quality and public health for Pakistan under the baseline and alternative scenarios. Our results reveal that Pakistan's current air pollution control measures are insufficient to meet the country's air quality standards under the baseline scenario. Implementing sustainable development strategies will reduce nationwide PM2.5-related mortalities by 24% in 2050 compared to the baseline. While advanced control measures have the potential to improve air quality and human health in Pakistan, when combined with national sustainable development strategies, they have the potential to halve greenhouse gas emissions (implementing SDG 13 indicator on climate action) and save on emission control costs approximately by a quarter (0.32% of GDP) by 2050. This appears to be a significant co-benefit in terms of air quality (environmental), health (social), and cost (economic), implying that Pakistan's future policymaking should prioritize cost-effective co-control of air pollution and greenhouse gases.