Abstract
The need to reduce risks from coastal storms and climate change in coastal areas has given rise to efforts to make greater use of integrated ecosystem-based approaches. Assessment of the role and cost efficiency of adaptation measures is increasingly demanded. Applying the Economics of Climate Adaptation framework in the US Gulf Coast, we compare nature-based defenses, artificial defenses, and policy measures for adaptation and risk reduction and quantify their costs and benefits under a variety of economic growth and climate change scenarios. Our analyses are spatially explicit and all models, tools and information are open source. The framework includes (i) a probabilistic assessment of hazards, (ii) estimation of damages and (iii) assessment of adaptation and risk reduction measures. We perform sensitivity analyses to understand the parameters that created the most variation in risk assessment and most influenced estimates of cost effectiveness. We find that high rates of economic growth and coastal development are likely to create greater risks in the near term than climate change, due to the increase in exposed assets. Nature-based solutions such as oyster reef and marsh restoration are particularly cost effective, but their cost-effectiveness is highly dependent on where these measures are used. As decision-makers look for the most cost effective group of measures for adaptation and risk reduction, these approaches and results should be particularly useful for informing management priorities.
Highlights
Coastal areas are physically and socioeconomically dynamic zones that hold important economic activities and a large part of the global population (McGranahan et al, 2007; Hinkel et al, 2013)
Coastal systems are increasingly vulnerable to flooding as a result of the combined influence of coastal storms, urban development and population growth, geomorphic change, and sea level rise (Woodruff et al 2013)
This work bridges efforts to identify where there may be aligned interests among environmental and risk reduction NGOs; reinsurance and engineering firms; and hazard mitigation agencies among others. Incorporating nature into these models is relevant for insurers, lenders and agencies who are interested in finding cost-effective solutions for risk reduction and in better pricing of risk reduction options
Summary
Coastal areas are physically and socioeconomically dynamic zones that hold important economic activities and a large part of the global population (McGranahan et al, 2007; Hinkel et al, 2013). Risk analysis is employed for probabilistically defining damage levels and locations Both approaches are increasingly being used in the context of climate adaptation at local sites (e.g., Aerts et al, 2014; Broekx et al, 2010). Large scale assessments such as DIVA (Hinkel et al, 2013) exist, but they are primarily useful for global and large regional analyses (i.e. order of 100s kms). Incorporating nature into these models is relevant for insurers, lenders and agencies who are interested in finding cost-effective solutions for risk reduction and in better pricing of risk reduction options
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