Abstract
During the glacial episodes of the Quaternary, European forests were restricted to small favourable spots, namely refugia, acting as biodiversity reservoirs. the Iberian, Italian and Balkan peninsulas have been considered as the main glacial refugia of trees in Europe. In this study, we estimate the composition of the last glacial forest in a coastal cave of the Cilento area (SW Italy) in seven time frames, spanning from the last Pleniglacial to the Late Glacial. Charcoal analyses were performed in seven archaeological layers. Furthermore, a paleoclimate modelling (Maxent) approach was used to complement the taxonomic identification of charcoal fragments to estimate the past potential distribution of tree species in Europe. Our results showed that the mesothermophilous forest survived in this region in the core of the Mediterranean basin during the Last Glacial Period (LGP, since ~36 ka cal BP), indicating that this area played an important role as a reservoir of woodland biodiversity. Here, Quercus pubescens was the most abundant component, followed by a wide variety of deciduous trees and Pinus nigra. Charcoal data also pointed at the crucial role of this coastal area, acting as a reservoir for warm temperate trees of genera Tilia, Carpinus and Sambucus, in LGP, in the Mediterranean region. Our modelling results showed that P. nigra might be the main candidate as a “Pinus sylvestris type” in the study site in the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). Furthermore, we found that P. nigra might coexist with Q. pubescens in several European territories both currently and in the LGM. All models showed high levels of predictive performances. Our results highlight the advantage of combining different approaches such as charcoal analysis and ecological niche models to explore biogeographic questions about past and current forest distribution, with important implications to inform today’s forest management and conservation.
Highlights
The location of refuge areas and the patterns of the northward spread of deciduous species during the Pleistocene–Holocene transition has been approached with many different methodologies, such as phylogeography, fossil records and Ecological Niche Models (ENMs) [5]
In agreement with Caudullo et al [43], our current models for Europe matched well the observed distribution of P. mugo/uncinata, P. nigra P. sylvestris, while, with regard to Q. pubescens, the models identified a larger area than that shown in Caudullo et al [43], in our case comprising the whole of the Iberian Peninsula
Based on the assumption that the ecological requirements of P. nigra match closely those of Q. pubescens, we found that the potential distribution of the latter species contributed only 30% to the potential occurrence of P. sylvestris vs. 70% to that of P. nigra, further corroborating our findings
Summary
The location of refuge areas and the patterns of the northward spread of deciduous species during the Pleistocene–Holocene transition has been approached with many different methodologies, such as phylogeography, fossil records and Ecological Niche Models (ENMs) [5]. These synergistic approaches are being increasingly used in a combination, but to date, the studies carried out lack geographical precision in seeking to pinpoint the location of such refugia [5,9,10,11,12,13]. If on the one hand, palynology has long been the main technique used for paleobotanical studies [5], on the other hand, charcoal analysis has been less widely applied [10]
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