Coastal cliff recession: the use of probabilistic prediction methods

Abstract

A range of probabilistic methods is introduced for predicting coastal cliff recession, which provide a means of demonstrating the potential variability in such predictions. They form the basis for risk-based land-use planning, cliff management and engineering decision-making. Examples of probabilistic models are presented for a number of different cliff settings: the simulation of recession on eroding cliffs; the use of historical records and statistical experiments to model the behaviour of cliffs affected by rare, episodic landslide events; the adaptation of an event tree approach to assess the probability of failure of protected cliffs, taking into account the residual life of the existing defences; and the evaluation of the probability of landslide reactivation in areas of pre-existing landslide systems. These methods are based on a geomorphological assessment of the episodic nature of the recession process, together with historical records.