Coal production and consumption analysis, and forecasting of related carbon emission: evidence from China

Abstract

Carbon dioxide (CO2) formed during coal combustion is responsible for over half of the increase in the greenhouse effect, globally. It is crucial to conduct a comprehensive analysis and accurate prediction for coal production and consumption to optimize coal utilization and control emissions. However, several unstable factors inhibit the accurate forecasting of coal. Therefore, taking into account both effect and efficiency of prediction, the Hubbert model is applied in this study to forecast China’s peak coal production, peak year, and future production. Additionally, a combined model, with weights determined by a flower pollination algorithm and no-negative-constraint theory, is proposed to forecast coal consumption, which is superior to that of all individual models. Subsequently, accounting for the vital effect of CO2 from coal combustion on economic issues, correlation analysis and an environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) are applied to quantitatively examine the relationship among coal consumption, economic development, and carbon emissions. The results of this estimation suggest that, compared to the US, China’s economic development relies more on coal consumption; however, the EKC indicates that China has still not reached the ‘inflection point’. Accordingly, it is essential for policymakers to balance the relationship among coal utilization, economic development, and the environment.