CO2 mitigation potential of CCS in China – an evaluation based on an integrated assessment model

Abstract

Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) has been viewed as an emission abatement option with great potential in China as coal has dominated China's energy consumption. China has already started to pay attention to CCS, as well as to the proposed the concept of ‘CCUS’ (which adds CO2 Utilization into the chain of capture, transportation and storage). However, CCS is still in the early stages of its technological development, and the high cost, with several internal and external uncertainties make the role that CCS can play in China's future emission reduction unclear. From the perspective of general equilibrium analysis, this paper introduces CCS into a regional energy–economy–environment integrated assessment model, and makes a comprehensive evaluation of CCS's potential for future development and contribution to emission abatement in China. At climate policy level, the potential contribution of CCS in emission abatement has been evaluated against different future emission constraint scenarios in China. At technological level, the effects of endogenous learning and policy incentives on CCS have been investigated, and the substitution capacities of CCS and Non-hydro renewables to fossil energy have been discussed, as well as their technology penetration rates. Furthermore, the impact of CO2 utilization on the development of CCS has also been discussed.