CO2 emissions in the Middle East: Decoupling and decomposition analysis of carbon emissions, and projection of its future trajectory

Abstract

Despite their acute climatic susceptibility, the hot, arid Middle Eastern countries are among the world's largest energy consumers and emitters of greenhouse gases, particularly carbon dioxide (CO2). Nonetheless, no study has been conducted to decompose regionally the influential primary factors of the Middle East's carbon emissions. This study utilized the logarithmic mean Divisia index (LMDI) method to fill this knowledge gap and investigate the driving forces of CO2 emissions in 12 Middle Eastern countries, namely, Bahrain, Iran, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Syria, the United Arab Emirates, and Yemen (1990–2020). The research confirmed that, with a contribution rate of 53.89 %, population growth is the primary driver of CO2 emissions in the Middle East, followed by energy intensity (31.97 %) and economic growth (18.42 %); and the most straightforward approach to reduce emissions, are boosting energy efficiency and reforming energy subsidies. It also concluded that the West Asian economy is gradually decoupling from CO2 due to the effective decarbonization of countries, such as Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, based on the Tapio decoupling model results. Furthermore, each country's future emissions (2020–2026) were projected using a novel group method of data handling (GMDH) approach based on the main identified factors. The countries' decoupling status confirms the accuracy of the projected data on CO2 emissions growth. The region's CO2 emissions are expected to rise 13.28 % by 2026, with Syria and Yemen experiencing the most significant increases (129.45 % and 112.14 %, respectively) due to post-civil war economic growth. Other aspects of regional conflicts and migration impacts on the CO2 emission influencing factors were also explored. Indeed, besides providing a comprehensive analysis of the current and future status of CO2 emissions in the Middle East, the effects of military conflicts on CO2 emissions have been investigated using this regional case study for global application.