CO2 emissions in Latin America: a time series perspective based on fractional integration

Abstract

This article deals with the analysis of {mathrm{CO}}_{2} emissions in Latin America by using a long memory process based on fractional integration. Using data of {mathrm{CO}}_{2} emission and {mathrm{CO}}_{2} emissions per capita, for 32 Latin American and Caribbean countries, the results show significant differences according to the variable examined, the model used, and the country under examination. In particular, for the {mathrm{CO}}_{2} emissions, mean reversion is found in Belize and also under some circumstances in Antigua and Barbuda, Colombia, Dominica, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, Grenada, Honduras, Nicaragua, Panama, Peru, and Uruguay. Thus, shocks in these series have a transitory effect. With respect to the time trends, only for some Caribbean countries, namely, Antigua and Barbuda, Aruba, Bahamas, Cuba, and Jamaica, the trend is insignificant; on the other hand, large countries like Brazil, Mexico, and Argentina display the highest time trend coefficients; for the {mathrm{CO}}_{2} emissions per capita, there are eleven countries where mean reversion is detected, and there are ten that share a lack of significance for the trend. The most significant trends now take place in Trinidad and Tobago, British Virgin Islands, Barbados, and Guyana. Policy implications of the results obtained are reported at the end of the paper.