CO2 emissions from the electricity sector during China's economic transition: from the production to the consumption perspective

Abstract

Abstract China's economy has entered the ‘New Normal’ era, transferring from the fast growth to the medium-high growth with ambitious targets on climate change mitigation and pollution alleviation. As the largest CO2 source among all industrial sectors, the electricity sector plays an important role in China's recent stagnating CO2 emissions and achieving mitigation targets. Here we estimate CO2 emissions from electricity production by using up-to-date emission factors and calculate the CO2 emissions embodied in purchased electricity using the Quasi-Input-Output (QIO) model. In addition, we quantify the drivers of CO2 emissions from electricity production and consumption using the index and structural decomposition analysis. Our results show that China's economic transition and increasing electricity intensity largely contributed to the growth of CO2 emissions in the electricity sector, while the improvement of energy efficiency, non-fossil fuel substitution, and shrinking share of industrial output reduced CO2 emissions. The consumption-based CO2 emissions in developed regions in China are higher than their production-based CO2 emissions in 12 provinces. The recent slowing down of economic growth, energy transition, improved efficiency, non-fossil fuel substitution, and electricity trade have altered the CO2 trajectory in the electricity sector since 2008 global financial crisis. This study could help policymakers better understand CO2 emissions in the electricity sector and formulate effective policies to decarbonize the electricity sector in the future.