CO2 capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) storage site selection using DEMATEL-based Grey Relational Analysis and evaluation of carbon emissions with the ARIMA method.

Abstract

Various systems are increasing gradually to reduce environmental concerns carbon capture, use, and storage (CCUS) systems are one of the most preferred processes in this context. Special areas such as depleted oil and gas reservoirs, aquifer reservoirs, and salt cave reservoirs are required needed to use this technology and, considering various criteria to decide on these areas is necessary. In this study, the problem of choosing the most suitable CCUS site selection for Turkey is discussed. In the study, for the alternative areas (Adıyaman, Aksaray, Diyarbakır, Afyon, and Tekirdağ) determined, 11 sub-assessment criteria (cost, CO2 state, regional risk, infrastructure availability, reservoir permeability, storage capacity, thickness reservoir, porosity, transportation availability, sustainability, facilities in operation by application) were discussed under CCUS main criterias (carbon capture, carbon storage, and carbon use). The DEMATEL method was used for the weights of the evaluation criteria. Unweighted gray relational analysis (GRA) method and DEMATEL-based GRA method were used to rank the alternatives. According to unweighted GRA results, Aksaray, Adıyaman, Afyon, Tekirdağ, and Diyarbakır decisions are obtained, respectively. According to the weighted GRA results, Aksaray, Adıyaman, Tekirdağ, Afyon, and Diyarbakır decisions are obtained, respectively. Calculation results demonstrated that Aksaray region is the most suitable alternative CCUS area for both methods. The CO amount values for the next period were estimated for this area and evaluated with the auto-regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) method by the Minitab. By considering 1013 days of CO data, according to the MA(1) model estimation results were obtained values between 410.899 (μg/m3) and 459.909 (μg/m3). With the installation of the CCUS facility, this value could be checked again by examining it. The use of real data in the study increases the effectiveness of the proposed approach.