Abstract
Reductions in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions can bring ancillary benefits of improved air quality and reduced premature mortality, in addition to slowing climate change. Here we study the co-benefits of global and domestic GHG mitigation on US air quality and human health in 2050 at fine resolution using dynamical downscaling of meteorology and air quality from global simulations to the continental US, and quantify for the first time the co-benefits from foreign GHG mitigation. Relative to the reference scenario from which Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5) was created, global GHG reductions in RCP4.5 avoid 16 000 PM2.5-related all-cause deaths yr−1 (90% confidence interval, 11 700–20 300), and 8000 (3600–12 400) O3-related respiratory deaths yr−1 in the US in 2050. Foreign GHG mitigation avoids 15% and 62% of PM2.5-and O3-related total avoided deaths, highlighting the importance of foreign mitigation for US health. GHG mitigation in the US residential sector brings the largest co-benefits for PM2.5-related deaths (21% of total domestic co-benefits), and industry for O3 (17%). Monetized benefits for avoided deaths from ozone and PM2.5 are $137 ($87–$187) per ton CO2 at high valuation and $45 ($29–62) at low valuation, of which 31% are from foreign GHG reductions. These benefits likely exceed the marginal cost of GHG reductions in 2050. The US gains significantly greater air quality and health co-benefits when its GHG emission reductions are concurrent with reductions in other nations. Similarly, previous studies estimating co-benefits locally or regionally may greatly underestimate the full co-benefits of coordinated global actions.
Highlights
Exposure to fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and ozone (O3) is associated with both morbidity and premature human mortality, as revealed in epidemiological studies (US EPA 2009, 2013)
We quantify the co-benefits of global greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation under the RCP4.5 scenario on US air quality and human health in 2050 using dynamical downscaling
We find that 16 000 (11 700–20 300) deaths yr−1 will be avoided for PM2.5-related all-cause mortality, and 8000 (3600–12 400) deaths yr−1 will be avoided for O3-related respiratory mortality
Summary
Previous research has quantified future air quality changes and their effects on human health under projected emission scenarios, at both the global (West et al 2007, Selin et al 2009, Silva et al 2016a) and regional scales (Fann et al 2013, Kim et al 2015, Jiang et al 2015, Sun et al 2015). Related studies have quantified the effect of global and regional climate change on air quality and human health (Bell et al 2007, Tagaris et al 2009, Post et al 2012, Fang et al 2013, Fann et al 2015). Post et al (2012) used an ensemble of atmospheric models to study the effect of climate change in 2050 on air quality and human health in the US, and found significant variability when using different models
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