Co — Active neuro-fuzzy inference systems model for predicting crude oil price based on OECD inventories

Abstract

This paper present a novel approach to crude oil price prediction based on co-active neuro-fuzzy inference systems (CANFIS) instead of the commonly use fuzzy neural network and adaptive network-based fuzzy inference systems due to superiority and robustness of the CANFIS model. Monthly data of West Texas Intermediate crude oil price and organization for economic co-operation and development (OECD) inventories, obtained from US Department of Energy were used to built the propose model. The CANFIS prediction model was trained, validated and tested. The performance of our approach is measured using mean square error, root mean square error, mean absolute error and regression. Suggestion from the results shows that the CANFIS demonstrated a high level of generalization capability with relatively very low error and high correlation which exhibited successful prediction performance of the proposal. The model has the potential of being developed into real life systems for use by both government and private businesses for making strategic planning that can boost economic activities.