¿Cómo va minando el entorno petrolero internacional a la economía mexicana?

Abstract

The impact of Mexico's oil revenues fall during 2015-2016 due to lower international oil prices is analyzed, observing that it affects two areas: the balance of payments and the public finances. Given the fact that the decline has occurred in a period in which international trade grows at slower rates, and Mexico relies too heavily on it, as well as on the inflow of international capitals, the effect on the balance of payments is considerable. Similarly, public finances have suffered the reduction of oil industry taxes participation on total tax revenues from 33% up to 2014 to 18% in 2015-2016, being not the tax reform fully capable to reimburse the government such resources. Therefore, not only the participation of the Public Sector Borrowing Requirement (psbr) in the Gross Domestic Product (gdp) has grown, but in just three years in office, the Peña administration has increased 10 percentage points the public sector debt in terms of gdp. Under these conditions, the pressures of short and medium term on the Mexican economy increases, especially if one considers that expected Foreign Direct Investment (fdi) revenues associated to the energy reform will be postponed and substantially reduced, at least until 2017, and the landing of Federal Reserve's (fed) monetary policy, which will involve at least three increases in the reference interest rate of the United States (us) during 2016, will produce equal or greater increases in Mexico's. This will not only impact the cost of public but also private debt, which disbursement in recent years has grown even faster than that of the public sector.