CMIP6 다중모델 기반 동아시아 현재기후 재현성 평가

Abstract

This study evaluates the performances of 38 global climate models used in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) for simulating present-day (1995 ~ 2014) climatological temperature and precipitation for the East Asian region. The simulated results of the CMIP6 multi-model ensembles show that overall spatial distribution is similar to that of the reanalysis data. In winter (December-January-February; DJF), temperature and precipitation biases are -0.62°C and 0.11 mm, respectively. Also, in summer (June-July-August; JJA), temperature and precipitation biases are -0.28°C and 0.22 mm, respectively. Additionally, we evaluate four climate extreme indices (TXx, TNn, R95p, Rx5day) compared with ERA5 and HadEX3 data. Simulated extreme temperature-related indices are well reproduced in the present-day, although the daily maximum and minimum temperature show negative and positive bias, respectively. Using the precipitation indies, the result of CMIP6 models is underestimated compared to reanalysis data. This is a typical feature of the East Asian Summer Monsoon simulated from CMIP climate models. Taking into account model validation and uncertainty estimation, this study demonstrates simulated performance of CMIP6 models for the present-day period.