CMIP5 simulated change in the intensity of the Hadley and Walker circulations from the perspective of velocity potential

Abstract

Based on the simulations of 31 global models in CMIP5, the performance of the models in simulating the Hadley and Walker circulations is evaluated. In addition, their change in intensity by the end of the 21st century (2080–2099) under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, relative to 1986–2005, is analyzed from the perspective of 200 hPa velocity potential. Validation shows good performance of the individual CMIP5 models and the multi-model ensemble mean (MME) in reproducing the meridional (zonal) structure and magnitude of Hadley (Walker) circulation. The MME can also capture the observed strengthening tendency of the winter Hadley circulation and weakening tendency of the Walker circulation. Such secular trends can be simulated by 39% and 74% of the models, respectively. The MME projection indicates that the winter Hadley circulation and the Walker circulation will weaken under both scenarios by the end of the 21st century. The weakening amplitude is larger under RCP8.5 than RCP4.5, due to stronger external forcing. The majority of the CMIP5 models show the same projection as the MME. However, for the summer Hadley circulation, the MME shows little change under RCP4.5 and large intermodel spread is apparent. Around half of the models project an increase, and the other half project a decrease. Under the RCP8.5 scenario, the MME and 65% of the models project a weakening of the summer southern Hadley circulation.