CMIP5 Projected Change in Northern Hemisphere Winter Cyclones with Associated Extreme Winds

Abstract

AbstractIn this study, 19 simulations from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) have been analyzed to examine how winter cyclones producing extreme near-surface winds are projected to change. Extreme wind thresholds correspond to a top 5 or top 1 cyclone per winter month in the entire Northern Hemisphere (NH). The results show that CMIP5 models project a significant decrease in the number of such cyclones, with a 19-model mean decrease of about 17% for the entire NH toward the end of the twenty-first century, under the high-emission RCP8.5 scenario. The projected decrease is larger in the Atlantic (about 21%). Over the Pacific, apart from an overall decrease (about 13%), there is a northeastward shift in the extreme cyclone activity. Less decrease is found in the frequency of cyclones producing extreme winds at 850 hPa (about 5% hemisphere-wide), with models mainly projecting a northeastward shift in the Pacific. These results suggest that 850-hPa wind changes may not be a good proxy for near-surface wind changes. These results contrast with those for the Southern Hemisphere, in which the frequency of cyclones with extreme winds are projected to significantly increase in all four seasons.