CMIP5 Historical 시나리오에 근거한 WRF를 이용한 한반도 중심의 동북아시아 상세기후

Abstract

In this study, climate over Korea based on the Historical scenario induced by HadGEM2-AO is simulated by WRF. For this purpose, a system that can be used be for numerical integration over the Far East Asian area of the center of the Korean Peninsula with 12.5 km-horizontal resolution was set-up at "Haebit", the early portion of KMA Supercomputer Unit-3. Using the system, the downscaling experiments were conducted for the period 1979-2010. The simulated results of HadGEM2-AO and WRF are presented in terms of 2 m-temperature and precipitation during boreal summer and winter of Historical for the period 1981~2005, compared with observation. As for the mean 2 m-temperature, the general patterns of HadGEM2-AO and WRF are similar with observation although WRF showed lower values than observation due to the systematic bias. WRF reproduced a feature of the terrain-following characteristics reasonably well owing to the increased horizontal resolution. Both of the models simulated the observed precipitation pattern for DJF than JJA reasonably, while the rainfall over the Korean Peninsula in JJA is less than observation. HadGEM2-AO in DJF 2 m-temperature and JJA precipitation has warm and dry biases over the Korean Peninsula, respectively. WRF showed cold bias over JJA 2 m-temperature and wet bias over DJF precipitation. The larger bias in WRF was attributed to the addition of HadGEM2-AO's bias to WRF's systematic bias. Spatial correlation analysis revealed that HadGEM2-AO and WRF had above 0.8 correlation coefficients except for JJA precipitation. In the EOF analysis, both models results explained basically same phase changes and variation as observation. Despite the difference in mean and bias fields for both models, the variabilities of the two models were almost similar with observation in many respects, implying that the downscaled results can be effectively used for the study of regional climate around the Korean Peninsula.