CMAQ-pollen 모델을 이용한 참나무 꽃가루 확산 고해상도 수치모의 및 검증

Abstract

The aim of this study is to evaluate the accuracy and variability of the oak pollen concentrations over the Seoul metropolitan region (SMR) simulated by the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ)-based pollen dispersion model, which is the CMAQ-pollen model integrated with the improved oak pollen emission model (PEM-oak). The PEM-oak model developed is based on hourly emission flux parameterization that includes the effects of plantspecific release, meteorological adjustment, and diurnal variations of oak pollen concentrations. A 33 day-run for oak pollen simulation was conducted by the CMAQ-pollen model with a 3 ㎞ spatial resolution for the SMR during the 2014 spring pollen season. Modeled concentrations were evaluated against the hourly measurements at three Burkard sampling sites. Temporal variations of oak concentrations were largely well represented by the model, but the quantitative difference between simulations and measurements was found to be significant in some periods. The model results also showed that large variations in oak pollen concentrations existed in time and space and high concentrations in the SMR were closely associated with the regional transport under strong wind condition. This study showed the effective application of the CMAQ-pollen modeling system to simulate oak pollen concentration in the SMR. Our results could be helpful in providing information on allergenic pollen exposure. Further efforts are needed to further understand the oak pollen release characteristics such as interannual variation of the oak pollen productivity and its spatio-temporal flowering timing.