‘Clustering’—Real or Apparent?: Probability Maps of Childhood Cancer in the West Midlands Health Authority Region

Abstract

The West Midlands Regional Children's Tumour Registry collects detailed information on all cases of childhood cancer in the West Midlands Health Authority Region (WMHAR). The distribution by electoral ward of all cases diagnosed in the WMHAR between 1980 and 1984 has been determined. Analysis has also been performed for leukaemias/non-Hodgkin's lymphomas alone. We suggest that this latter grouping should be universally employed, owing to the difficulty of accurately separating out cases of leukaemia. Both spatial analyses showed several wards with significantly excessive rates on the basis of their cumulative Poison probability. Observed/expected ratios of 3-35 were seen for cases in significant wards, which are similar to the ratios seen in analysis of incidence around nuclear installations. However, further detailed consideration of these individual significance levels in the light of the number of statistically significant wards which would occur by chance alone, due to the multiple use of the test, accounted completely for the number of wards obtained in each of the groups considered. Thus, apparent 'clustering' of cases could be mere statistical artefact. In the WMHAR, therefore, using the technique of probability mapping, no true spatial pattern of incidence was found, other than that which would occur by chance alone. This, in a large area without nuclear installations and an even mix of rural and industrialised regions, could be seen as control data for those studies which have considered cases of childhood leukaemia around nuclear facilities, where the observation of single point clusters associated with suspected sites restricts assessments of spatial pattern in the rest of the area.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)