Clustering Provinces in Indonesia Based on Daily Covid-19 Cases

Abstract

The latest form of coronavirus is Coronavirus Disease 2019 (Covid-19). It was discovered in Wuhan, Hubei Province, China. The Covid-19 virus is growing very rapidly. Starting from Wuhan which then spread to the surrounding provinces to all provinces in China, and even spread to other countries such as Indonesia. Until August 17, 2020, an update from the KEMENKES RI that the development of Covid-19 in 34 Indonesian Provinces was positive ( 141,370), recovered (94,458), and died (6,207). This means that the case fatality rate in Indonesia is 4.39%. As a disease that is currently becoming a pandemic has a major impact in all sectors, it is very important to explore data and carry out clustering that is useful for policy making for the government such as decision making on WFH, PSBB, New Normal, or lockdown. The clustering provinces based on those similarities (homogeneity) data to find out which provinces have Covid-19 cases with similar characteristics and between clusters have different characteristics. Clusterization is expected to inform areas of high, medium, and low risk and their characteristic characteristics. Based on Covid-19 data, we used the hierarchical clustering method shows there are 4 clusters: cluster 1 (Jakarta and East Java), cluster 2 (Central Java, West Java, and South Sulawesi), cluster 3 (South Kalimantan, North Sumatra, South Sumatra, Papua, Bali, and East Kalimantan), and the provinces others in cluster 4. Validation of clustering shows Dynamic Time Warping (DTW) distance for hierarchical clustering (average linkage) is a good classification with an average silhouette value of 0.70.