Clustering of Earthquake Events in the Himalaya - Its Relevance to Regional Tectonic Set-up

Abstract

The earthquake events of Himalaya of magnitude ≥5.0 from the time window 1905–2000 are statistically analysed. The inter-event time between earthquakes shows Hurst phenomena of temporal clustering which are spatially located in five distinct domains along the Himalayan fold-thrust belt. Out of these, two domains, one around Uttaranchal-Nepal border and the other around Nepal-Sikkim border reveal maximum number of temporal clusters and thus considered as seismically most potential zones of the Himalaya. Both these zones are located at the interface of the orthogonally disposed major tectonic discontinuities of the Peninsular Shield and Himalayan fold-thrust belt. Such zones are geologically most favourable locales for strain accumulation during later-tectonic movement. Statistical analysis points towards a probability of recurrence of seismic events in near future in these two zones. However, validity of such statistical results can be ascertained by detailed geological and geophysical modelling of the terrain.