Abstract

The production gap of soybean (Glycine max L. Merr.) has been expanding in China recently, due to the increasing demand and decreasing production. Identifying soybean production dynamics is contributable to appropriate adjustment of crop rotation system and efficient use of agricultural resources—and thus to ensure food security. Taking the North China plain (NCP) as a case area, this study first analyzed the spatiotemporal dynamics of soybean production during 1998–2015 based on the spatial autocorrelation method, and then calculated contributions to the total production by yield and sown area using the factor decomposition method. The results indicated that total soybean production in the NCP decreased dramatically from 1998 to 2015 and showed a decreasing trend in 80.4% (263) of the counties, mainly (83.9%) contributed by the shrinkage of sown area, largely caused by decreasing benefit. Two regions were found with significantly spatial clustering degree of soybean production. In the south part of NCP, soybean production was highly clustered in Anhui province, and in north it was mainly clustered in western Hebei plain. It was found that soybean production in the NCP was rather sensitive to the return gaps of soybean from maize (Zea mays L.). These imply that the reduced area of soybean production can be restored if the return is improved by adopting appropriate policies such as appropriate subsidies. These findings could be helpful for the policymakers to make soybean production planning in the NCP, contributing to the national revitalization strategy of soybean production.

Highlights

  • Demand for milk and meat in China has been expanding with much higher rate than the global average, due to dramatically improved dietary structure in recent decades [1,2,3,4], stimulating considerable increase of soybean and maize consumption [5,6]

  • During 1980–2004, soybean production increased from 7.9 Mt to the highest 17.4 Mt, but decreased to 12.4 Mt in 2015, due mainly to the shrinkage of sown area resulted from maize expansion

  • This study presented a procedure to reveal spatiotemporal dynamics and spatial clustering characteristic of soybean production in the North China plain (NCP), by combined use of the methods of spatial autocorrelation, factor decomposition and GIS-based spatial analysis

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Summary

Introduction

Demand for milk and meat in China has been expanding with much higher rate than the global average, due to dramatically improved dietary structure in recent decades [1,2,3,4], stimulating considerable increase of soybean and maize consumption [5,6]. Sun et al indicated that conversion of soybean land to cereal crops resulted in soil n balance turned from negative to positive, increasing risk of n losses and soil pollution [18] Recognizing these problems, the Chinese government has made efforts to promote soybean production, and in 2015, enacted the National planting structure adjustment plan (2016–2020), in which the sown area of soybean was planned to restore to 9.33 Mha in 2020. To realize the national goal of soybean revitalization, soybean production in the NCP should be restored and expanded For this purpose, this study first, analyzed the spatiotemporal changes of soybean production at county level from 1998 to 2015, and identified the cluster types and the dynamics, using the methodologies of spatial autocorrelation and factor decomposition.

Study Area
Spatial ATouttaolcorrelation
Factor Decomposition
Spatiotemporal Changes of Soybean Production
Spatial Statistics of Clustering Characteristics
Implications
Findings
Conclusions
Full Text
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