Abstract
The rational modelling of wind power uncertainty is the premise of relevant analysis and decision-making. The uncertainty, intermittent nature of cluster wind power and the spatial correlation between different wind farms are the key factors to determine the impact of cluster wind power on the power system. The rationality of the wind power uncertainty model will determine the validity of the wind power uncertainty analysis and decision-making model and the credibility of the analysis conclusions. The development of wind power in China is very rapid, but the accumulation of wind power and meteorological statistics is insufficient. The research on the uncertainty of cluster wind power output is not deep-going. For this reason, the wind power uncertainty model is taken as the entry point. This paper will establish the uncertain model of wind power and its simulation method. This method can generate time series of wind farm output in accordance with wind power uncertainty characteristics, and effectively analyze the overall output characteristics of large-scale cluster wind power to be planned in the future, which provides a new idea for studying the impact of wind power on future power systems.
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