CLUE-S 模型在长白山自然保护区外围规划中的应用

Abstract

受自然保护区旅游业快速发展影响，长白山自然保护区外围土地利用变化加剧。因此，对区域土地利用布局进行科学规划具有十分重要的意义。以长白山自然保护区外围30 km区域为研究对象，探讨了CLUE-S模型在小尺度土地利用规划中的应用。在分析研究区1991-2007年土地利用变化的驱动力基础上，根据区域规划预案，模拟2020土地利用布局。利用模拟结果划定空间管制区和乡镇布局，并与现有规划进行了对比。结果表明，基于CLUE-S 模型的土地规划明显抑制了区域景观破碎化进程，减弱了人为活动对景观的影响，该方法可以为长白山区域土地利用规划提供有力的技术手段和科学支撑。;Ecological tourism frequently serves as an important tool for economic development in areas adjacent to forest and other types of nature reserves. The infrastructure for ecological tourism is usually constructed in the area immediately surrounding the reserve in accordance with relevant reserve regulations. This will clearly affect the local ecosystem. The study of land use changes surrounding nature reserves may provide guidance and a scientific basis for reasonable and effective land-use planning in these areas. Simulation models can be a scientific and effective tool in understanding and predicting changes in spatial patterns of land use over time, providing precise scenarios for changes in spatial patterns that can be used in regional land use planning. CLUE-S is one such model widely used in the study of land use change, and is particularly effective in simulating shifting patterns of land use in small scale areas. The Changbai Mountain Biosphere Reserve (CMBR) is an important forest nature reserve in Northeastern China. In recent years, extensive land-use and land-cover change, triggered by rapid development of tourism and the expansion of townships, has occurred in the area surrounding the CMBR. Among previous research on landscape changes in the CMBR, relatively little attention has been given to the scientific planning of land use. Focusing on the area consisting of all land within 30 km of the CMBR, this study explored the application of CLUE-S in land use planning on a small scale. Utilizing Landsat TM data from 1991 and 2007, and referring to master and regional planning documents for Changbai Mountain, a multiple of 600×600 grids was used to calculate the area of each land use type. The spatial scale was 600m and the time of simulation was set as 2020. The driving forces of land use change were analyzed by logistic regression. Using the model to simulate the evolution of land use changes, it was tested with a Kappa index of 0.949. The landscape for the area in 2020 was then simulated, and a land use plan was provided according to the urban planning scenario in the study area. The simulated landscape in 2020 showed that 16488 hm2 of cultivated land and forest is projected to be converted to developed land, which extended to the area around the current site. We delimited the control zones, arrangement pattern and development direction of townships based on CLUE-S simulation results. Analysis of the landscape pattern showed that the land use plan based on the simulation results for 2020 using the CLUE-S model had less patches and higher landscape shape index than the landscape pattern during 1991-2007. This indicates that the land use plan of the CLUE-S model restrained the process of landscape fragmentation and reduced human-induced disturbances. Compared to the existing plan, the land use plan of the CLUE-S model took the surrounding area as a whole and chose the maximum probability of alternative areas according to the demand for developed land. It also had a smaller number of new towns and developed land area, which contributed relieving stresses on the environment. The CLUE-S model appears to be a powerful, scientifically-based technical means to support in land use planning efforts on a small scale.