CLUE: a conceptual model to study the Conversion of Land Use and its Effects

Abstract

A dynamic model to simulate Conversion of Land Use and its Effects (CLUE) is presented. For an imaginary region, CLUE simulates land use conversion and change in space and time as a result of interacting biophysical and human drivers. Within CLUE regional land use changes only if biophysical and human demands cannot be met by existing land use. After a regional assessment of land use needs, the final land use decisions are made on a local grid level. Important biophysical drivers are local biophysical suitability and their fluctuations, land use history, spatial distribution of infrastructure and land use, and the occurrence of pests and diseases. Important human land use drivers in CLUE are population size and density, regional and international technology level, level of affluence, target markets for products, economical conditions, attitudes and values, and the applied land use strategy. Initial CLUE simulations suggest that the integrated land use approach of CLUE can make a more realistic contribution to predictions of future land cover than currently used biophysical equilibrium approaches.