Abstract
As natural backwater structures, landslide dams both threaten downstream human settlement or infrastructure and contain abundant hydro-energy and tourism resources, so research on their development feasibility is of great significance for permanently remedying them and effectively turning disasters into benefits. Through an analysis of the factors influencing landslide dam development and utilization, an index system (consisting of target, rule, and index layers) for evaluating development feasibility was constructed in this paper. Considering uncertainty and randomness in development feasibility evaluation, a cloud model-improved evaluation method was proposed to determine membership and score clouds based on the uncertainty reasoning of cloud model, and a cloud model-improved analytic hierarchy process (AHP-Cloud Model) was introduced to obtain weights. Final evaluation results were obtained using a hierarchical weighted summary. The improved method was applied to evaluate the Hongshiyan and Tangjiashan landslide dams and the results were compared with the maximum membership principle results. The results showed that the cloud model depicted the fuzziness and uncertainty in the evaluation process. The improved method proposed in this paper overcame the loss of fuzziness in the maximum membership principle evaluation results, and was capable of more directly presenting evaluation results. The development feasibility of the Hongshiyan landslide dam was relatively high, while that of the Tangjiashan landslide dam was relatively low. As suggested by these results, the evaluation model proposed in this paper has great significance for preparing a long-term management scheme for landslide dams.
Highlights
Landslide dams are natural dams formed when the barrier bodies produced by earthquakes, landslides, debris flows, volcanic eruption, or other geological action which are dammed in gullies, river channels, or depressions
Referring to the hierarchical logic of the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) target, rule, and index layers, this paper examined landslide dam risk ratings and the development feasibility evaluation of hydropower projects from existing studies, investigated the characteristics and influencing factors of landslide dam development and utilization, and divided landslide dam development feasibility targets after emergency management into four rule layers, i.e., safety risk, resource feasibility, economic feasibility, and eco-environmental impact
The cloud model describes the numerical characteristics of a fuzzy concept using expected value Ex, entropy En, and hyper-entropy He, where expected value Ex denotes the mean value of the qualitative concept, corresponding to the central position of a cloud droplet; entropy En denotes the fuzziness of the qualitative concept, and reflects the acceptable numerical range; hyper-entropy He is the entropy of the En, reflects the uncertainty of entropy, and corresponds to the thickness of the cloud layer [18]
Summary
Landslide dams are natural dams formed when the barrier bodies produced by earthquakes, landslides, debris flows, volcanic eruption, or other geological action which are dammed in gullies, river channels, or depressions. Southwest China has experienced active geological tectonic movements, frequent earthquakes, and heavy rainfall [1], resulting in the emergence of hundreds of landslide dams. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript
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