Abstract

Abstract. Cloud base height (CBH) is an important parameter for many applications such as aviation, climatology or solar irradiance nowcasting (forecasting for the next seconds to hours ahead). The latter application is of increasing importance for the operation of distribution grids and photovoltaic power plants, energy storage systems and flexible consumers. To nowcast solar irradiance, systems based on all-sky imagers (ASIs), cameras monitoring the entire sky dome above their point of installation, have been demonstrated. Accurate knowledge of the CBH is required to nowcast the spatial distribution of solar irradiance around the ASI's location at a resolution down to 5 m. To measure the CBH, two ASIs located at a distance of usually less than 6 km can be combined into an ASI pair. However, the accuracy of such systems is limited. We present and validate a method to measure the CBH using a network of ASIs to enhance accuracy. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first method to measure the CBH with a network of ASIs which is demonstrated experimentally. In this study, the deviations of 42 ASI pairs are studied in comparison to a ceilometer and are characterized by camera distance. The ASI pairs are formed from seven ASIs and feature camera distances of 0.8…5.7 km. Each of the 21 tuples of two ASIs formed from seven ASIs yields two independent ASI pairs as the ASI used as the main and auxiliary camera, respectively, is swapped. Deviations found are compiled into conditional probabilities that tell how probable it is to receive a certain reading of the CBH from an ASI pair given that the true CBH takes on some specific value. Based on such statistical knowledge, in the inference, the likeliest actual CBH is estimated from the readings of all 42 ASI pairs. Based on the validation results, ASI pairs with a small camera distance (especially if <1.2 km) are accurate for low clouds (CBH<4 km). In contrast, ASI pairs with a camera distance of more than 3 km provide smaller deviations for greater CBH. No ASI pair provides the most accurate measurements under all conditions. The presented network of ASIs at different distances proves that, under all cloud conditions, the measurements of the CBH are more accurate than using a single ASI pair.

Highlights

  • Cloud base height (CBH) has become an important parameter in meteorology that is required, either directly or indirectly, in many applications

  • Systems based on all-sky imagers (ASIs), cameras monitoring the entire sky dome above their point of installation, have been demonstrated

  • The ASI network-based estimation of the CBH aims to combine the measurements of the CBH from ASI pairs arranged in proximity and organized in a network

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Summary

Introduction

Cloud base height (CBH) has become an important parameter in meteorology that is required, either directly or indirectly, in many applications. The method for measuring the CBH, presented in this study, is used as part of an ASI-based nowcasting system of the solar resource. Further common approaches to measuring the CBH, which could be applied for operational use in nowcasting, include weather balloons and the estimation of the CBH based on a recognized cloud genus (World Meteorological Organization, 2018). Prior works studying ASI-based forecasting systems with up to four cameras (e.g., Nouri et al, 2019b) suggested that the CBH is an essential component when predicting maps of solar irradiance based on cloud observations from ASIs, as the current and future positions of cloud shadows on the ground can only be predicted accurately if the clouds’ height and velocity are determined accurately.

Eye2Sky network and experimental setup
Development of a CBH estimation using the ASI network
Properties of CBH measurements from ceilometers and from ASI pairs
Meteorological conditions at the site
Estimating the CBH in the ASI network
Estimation of conditional probabilities of the CBH
Comparison of the CBH measurements for an exemplary day
Comparison of the CBH measurements by relative frequencies
ASI pairs
ASI network
CBH accuracy under nowcasting conditions
Comparison of the CBH accuracy for a 3-month data set
Accuracy of the ASI network and ASI pairs
Influence of the camera distance on performance metrics
Conclusions
Retrieval of raw joint frequency distributions
Filtering operations applied
Representation of intervals of camera distance
Findings
Estimation of the CBH during a clear sky period
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