Abstract
Long‐term trends and decadal variability of sea level in the North Sea and along the Norwegian coast have been studied over the period 1958–2014. We model the spatially nonuniform sea level and solid earth response to large‐scale ice melt and terrestrial water storage changes. GPS observations, corrected for the solid earth deformation, are used to estimate vertical land motion. We find a clear correlation between sea level in the North Sea and along the Norwegian coast and open ocean steric variability in the Bay of Biscay and west of Portugal, which is consistent with the presence of wind‐driven coastally trapped waves. The observed nodal cycle is consistent with tidal equilibrium. We are able to explain the observed sea level trend over the period 1958–2014 well within the standard error of the sum of all contributing processes, as well as the large majority of the observed decadal sea level variability.
Highlights
Sea level rise is one of the most important consequences of climate change
We find a clear correlation between sea level in the North Sea and along the Norwegian coast and open ocean steric variability in the Bay of Biscay and west of Portugal, which is consistent with the presence of wind-driven coastally trapped waves
Steric heights computed from T/S profiles from fixed hydrographic stations along the Norwegian coast (Bud, Sognesjøen, Ytre Utsira, Indre Utsira, and Lista, data from imr.no/forskning/forskningsdata/stasjoner, a location map can be found in the supporting information) confirm the coherence between open ocean and on-shelf steric variability on the lowest frequencies (Figure 4a), though on subdecadal scales, differences can be noticed
Summary
Large deviations from the global mean trend are observed, as well as significant variability on interannual and decadal scales [Stammer et al, 2013; Hughes and Williams, 2010]. Knowledge about the origin of trends and variability of regional mean sea level on these longer time scales is of key importance for determining future regional sea level rise, which is needed to ensure coastal safety [Nicholls and Cazenave, 2010]. One of the first attempts to close the regional sea level budget on multidecadal time scales has been made by Slangen et al [2014], who studied regional trends, and found an acceptable agreement for most basins, but for individual tide gauge stations, large deviations occur
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