Closing the gap between causality, prediction, emergence, and applied marine management

Abstract

AbstractThe themed article set (TS) “Science in support of a nonlinear non-equilibrium world” reflects the challenge presented by the increasing potential for complex non-linear behaviour in marine ecosystems, many of which are undergoing dramatic changes due to anthropogenic perturbations. Marine ecosystems are complex adaptive systems, yet management strategies are often guided by a linear, stable perspective that excludes non-linearities and the possibility for evolution and adaptation. Rapidly increasing amounts of observational data, the interdisciplinary development of powerful mathematical approaches from complexity theory, and the evolving complex adaptive systems approach that includes human behaviour promise to substantially advance the development of management strategies. For these reasons, the ICES Journal of Marine Science solicited contributions to a TS that would take up these issues. In this introduction, I focus on three important areas—causality, prediction, and emergence—where a “non-linear” perspective can advance our understanding and better support sustainable management of ecosystems. I briefly present the nine contributions that are included in the themed set and suggest some ways forward. We hope that these articles serve to convince managers and marine scientists of the benefits of incorporating approaches and results from research on non-linear dynamics.