Closing the energy divide in a climate-constrained world: A focus on the buildings sector

Abstract

Access to modern energy services in households is central to achieving decent living standards and well-being. Almost 3 billion people in Sub-Saharan Africa and developing Asia still lack access to modern energy services and endure energy consumption rates equivalent to a fraction of that in developed countries. While critical for the successful achievement of several internationally agreed Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), closing this energy divide may pose an additional pressure on the already daunting challenge of securing climate stabilization. The ways in which this divide is closed will significantly affect the development of buildings-related emissions. This paper revisits previous work on the potential conflict between efforts towards closing the energy divide and enabling the achievement of higher levels of human well-being, and those associated with climate stabilization. It estimates the additional energy needed to achieve the former in terms of final energy consumption levels in key regions, and the associated emission pathways under different climate action scenarios. It then analyses the impact that such pathways could have on estimated carbon budgets associated with fulfilling the Paris Agreement, and provides some suggestions on how this impact could be minimized in the buildings sector.