Close approach analysis of space objects and estimation of satellite-debris collision probability

Abstract

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to perform a comparative study of two propagation models and a prediction of proximity distances among the space objects based on the two-line element set (TLEs) data, which identifies potentially risky approaches and is used to compute the probability of collision among the spacecrafts. Design/methodology/approach – At first, the proximities are estimated for the mentioned satellites using a precise propagation model and based on a one-month simulation. Then, a study is performed to determine the probability of collision between two satellites using a formulation which takes into account the object sizes, covariance data and the relative distance at the point of closest approach. Simplifying assumptions such as a linear relative motion and normally distributed position uncertainties at the predicted closest approach time are applied in estimation. Findings – For the case of Iridium-Cosmos collision and the prediction of a closest approach using available TLE orbital...