Abstract

0 ne of the major uncertainties facing the Asia-Pacific, indeed, the entire international system, is the future role of China, a country in the throes of generational political succession. How that role is defmed-whether the People’s Republic of China (PRC) is integrated into the world system as a responsible global power accepting international norms or play largely by its own rules-will be greatly influenced by the character of Sino-American relations. President BiU Clinton has gone from the poetry of campaigning (for example, “coddling the dictators of Beijing”) to the more nettlesome prose of governing. Part of that tortuous process has been a transformation of US. policy towards China from a nadir that almost unraveled the volatile relationship. However successful Clinton is in redefining the relationship, China poses imminent challenges and looming medium-term dangers. Clinton’s November 19, 1993, meeting with Chinese president Jiang Zen-tin during the Seattle summit of leaders from the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) forum symbolized the beginning of a new stage in Sine-American relations, one characterized by adequate, if still fragile, bipartisan support for a China policy of expansive engagement, in which human rights (barring any future egregious Tiananmen-type developments) is no longer the singular benchmark. The annual drama over Most Favored Nation (MFN) treatment of Chinese imports has defined a post-Tiananmen policy lacking in national consensus and priorities. Not only have the MFN renewal debates raised the risk of miscalculation and confrontation on both sides but they have been out of touch with Chinese reality and have fostered a political climate that made rational dialogue with Beijing on vital global issues-from its nuclear modernization to its environmental policies-extremely difhcult. Before a new equilibrium in Sino-American relations can even be achieved, the administration must gain congressional acceptance of a positive presidential determination that China has met absolute conditions regarding

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