Abstract
Recently, the 2015 American Thyroid Association (ATA) risk stratification and the 8th edition of the American Joint Committee on Cancer/Union for International Cancer Control (AJCC/UICC) TNM staging system were released. This study was conducted to assess the clinical value of the lymph node ratio (LNR) as a predictor of recurrence when integrated with these newly released stratification systems, and to compare the predictive accuracy of the modified systems with that of the newly released systems. The optimal LNR threshold value for predicting papillary thyroid cancer (PTC) recurrence was 0.17857 using the Contal and O’Quigley method. The 8th edition of the AJCC/UICC TNM staging system with the LNR and the 2015 ATA risk stratification system with the LNR were significant predictors of recurrence. Furthermore, calculation of the proportion of variance explained (PVE), the Akaike information criterion (AIC), Harrell’s c index, and the incremental area under the curve (iAUC) revealed that the 8th edition of the TNM staging system with the LNR, and the 2015 ATA risk stratification system with the LNR, showed the best predictive performance. Integration of the LNR with the TNM staging and the ATA risk stratification systems should improve prediction of recurrence in patients with PTC.
Highlights
The 2015 American Thyroid Association (ATA) risk stratification and the 8th edition of the American Joint Committee on Cancer/Union for International Cancer Control (AJCC/UICC) TNM staging system were released
This study aimed to estimate the effect of integrating the lymph node ratio (LNR) with TNM staging and ATA risk stratification systems to predict papillary thyroid cancer (PTC) recurrence
The 8th TNM staging system is important to assess the risk of mortality, and may not be appropriate to predict the risk for disease recurrence
Summary
The 2015 American Thyroid Association (ATA) risk stratification and the 8th edition of the American Joint Committee on Cancer/Union for International Cancer Control (AJCC/UICC) TNM staging system were released. The 8th edition of the AJCC/UICC TNM staging system with the LNR and the 2015 ATA risk stratification system with the LNR were significant predictors of recurrence. To provide a more accurate system that predicts disease-specific survival (DSS), the 8th edition of the TNM staging system was released by the American Joint Committee on Cancer/Union for International Cancer Control (AJCC/UICC). The revised 2015 ATA guidelines point out the importance of metastatic lymph nodes (MLNs), indicating that the number and size of MLNs in the neck are predictors of papillary thyroid cancer (PTC) recurrence. This new system has a limitation in that the stratification strategy, which comprises three groups, is too simple for a personalized medicine approach that needs to reflect the diverse clinical or pathological behaviors of DTC10–15
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