Clinical risk prediction score for postoperative accelerated junctional rhythm and junctional ectopic tachycardia in children with congenital heart disease

Abstract

Accelerated junctional rhythm (AJR) and junctional ectopic tachycardia (JET) are common postoperative arrhythmias associated with morbidity/mortality. Studies suggest that pre- or intraoperative treatment may improve outcomes, but patient selection remains a challenge. The purpose of this study was to describe contemporary outcomes of postoperative AJR/JET and develop a risk prediction score to identify patients at highest risk. This was a retrospective cohort study of children aged 0-18 years undergoing cardiac surgery (2011-2018). AJR was defined as usual complex tachycardia with ≥1:1 ventricular-atrial association and junctional rate >25th percentile of sinus rate for age but <170 bpm, whereas JET was defined as a rate >170 bpm. A risk prediction score was developed using random forest analysis and logistic regression. Among 6364 surgeries, AJR occurred in 215 (3.4%) and JET in 59 (0.9%). Age, heterotaxy syndrome, aortic cross-clamp time, ventricular septal defect closure, and atrioventricular canal repair were independent predictors of AJR/JET on multivariate analysis and included in the risk prediction score. The model accurately predicted the risk of AJR/JET with a C-index of 0.72 (95% confidence interval 0.70-0.75). Postoperative AJR and JET were associated with prolonged intensive care unit and hospital length of stay, but not with early mortality. We describe a novel risk prediction score to estimate the risk of postoperative AJR/JET permitting early identification of at-risk patients who may benefit from prophylactic treatment.