Clinical risk factors and P wave indices in prediction of atrial fibrillation development during long-term follow-up after acute ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction

Abstract

Abstract Introduction In patients with high thromboembolic risk detection of atrial fibrillation (AF) is crucial for implementation of proper anticoagulation therapy, which highlights the need for identification of patients at risk for AF. P wave indices reflect atrial structural abnormalities linked to AF development. Purpose We aimed to assess the value of clinical risk factors and P wave indices in prediction of incident AF after acute ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) in patients undergoing primary percutaneous intervention (PCI). Methods Study sample comprised of 2277 consecutive patients with STEMI admitted to a tertiary care hospital for primary PCI from 2007 to 2010. SWEDEHEART registry was used as the source of information regarding clinical characteristics and events during index admission. Patients without known AF at discharge were included in the current study (n=1837, mean age 65±12 years, 30% females). AF in follow-up (median 9, interquartile range 25–75% (IQR) 7–10 years) was documented by linkage with the Swedish National Patient Register and Swedish Cause-of-Death Register. The closest available ECGs prior to STEMI (median 448, interquartile rate 25–75% 112–1390 days before STEMI) were extracted from the regional electronic ECG databases and automatically processed using Glasgow algorithm. P-wave duration, PR interval, P-wave frontal axis and P terminal force in lead V1 (PTF-V1) were assessed. PTF-V1 >40 mm*ms was considered abnormal. Results In follow-up incident AF was documented in 285 patients (15.4%). In univariate Cox regression analysis age, hypertension, history of myocardial infarction, heart failure, history of stroke, smoking status, P wave duration >120 ms, PR interval and abnormal PTF-V1 predicted the AF development during follow-up (Table). In multivariate Cox regression analysis in which significantly associated variables were included only age (hazard ratio (HR) 1.07, 95% CI 1.05–1.08, p<0.001) and abnormal PTF-V1 (HR 1.49, 95% CI 1.08–2.05, p=0.015, Figure) remained independent predictors of incident AF. Conclusion In patients with acute STEMI incident AF developed during long-term follow-up after discharge from hospital was strongly associated with age and atrial structural abnormalities reflected as abnormal PTF-V1 on pre-STEMI ECG which might serve as a tool in risk stratification of STEMI patients in regard to AF development. Funding Acknowledgement Type of funding sources: Public Institution(s). Main funding source(s): Scholarship grant from Swedish Institute. Table 1Figure 1