Clinical prediction rule to diagnose post‐infectious bronchiolitis obliterans in children

Abstract

Infant pulmonary function testing has a great value in the diagnosis of post-infectious bronchiolitis obliterans (BOs), because of characteristic patterns of severe and fixed airway obstruction. Unfortunately, infant pulmonary function testing is not available in most pediatric pulmonary centers. To develop and validate a clinical prediction rule (BO-Score) to diagnose children under 2 years of age with BOs, using multiple objectively measured parameters readily available in most medical centers. Study subjects, children under 2 years old with a chronic pulmonary disease assisted at R. Gutierrez Children's Hospital of Buenos Aires. Patients were randomly divided into a derivation (66%) and a validation (34%) set. ROC analyses and multivariable logistic regression included significant clinical, radiological, and laboratory predictors. The main outcome measure was a diagnosis of BOs. The performance of the BO-Score was tested on the validation set. Hundred twenty-five patients were included, 83 in the derivation set and 42 in the validation set. The BO-Score (area under ROC curve = 0.96; 95% CI, 0.9-1.0%) was developed by assigning points to the following variables: typical clinical history (four points), adenovirus infection (three points), and high-resolution computed tomography with mosaic perfusion (four points). A Score > or =7 predicted the diagnosis of BOs with a specificity of 100% (95% CI, 79-100%) and a sensitivity of 67% (95% CI, 47-80%). The BO-Score is a simple-to-use clinical prediction rule, based on variables that are readily available. A BO-Score of 7 or more predicts a diagnosis of post-infectious BOs with high accuracy.