Clinical Outcomes of Intraductal Papillary Mucinous Neoplasms With Dilatation of the Main Pancreatic Duct

Abstract

Dilatation of the main pancreatic duct (MPD) has been a surgical indication for intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms (IPMNs). Few studies have investigated long-term outcomes of IPMNs with MPD dilatation. Among 3610 patients diagnosed with pancreatic cysts between 1994 and 2021, we identified 2829 IPMN patients, including 282 patients with MPD ≥5 mm, and examined short-term (≤6 months) and long-term risks of pancreatic carcinoma. Utilizing competing risks proportional hazards models, we estimated subdistribution hazard ratios for incidence of pancreatic carcinoma with adjustment for potential confounders. In analyses of short-term outcomes of the 282 patients with MPD dilatation, 72 (26%) patients were diagnosed with pancreatic carcinoma based on surgical or nonsurgical exploration. During long-term follow-up of 168 patients, we documented 24 (14%) patients diagnosed with pancreatic carcinoma (18 with IPMN-derived carcinoma and 6 with concomitant ductal adenocarcinoma). The patients with the MPD= 5-9.9 mm had cumulative incidence rates of pancreatic carcinoma diagnosis of 8.1% (95% confidence interval [CI], 4.3%-13.5%) and 10.0% (95% CI, 5.5%-15.9%) at 2 and 5 years, respectively; and the patients with the MPD ≥10 mm had the corresponding rates of 16.0% (95% CI, 3.6-36.5%) and 33.3% (95% CI, 10.3%-58.8%). The multivariable subdistribution hazard ratios were 2.78 (95% CI, 1.57-4.90) and 7.00 (95% CI, 2.58-19.0) for the MPD= 5-9.9 mm and ≥10 mm (vs <5 mm), respectively. IPMNs with MPD dilatation at baseline were associated with higher prevalence and incidence of pancreatic carcinoma compared with IPMNs with no MPD dilatation.