Clinical Characteristics of Severe COVID-19 Patients During Omicron Epidemic and a Nomogram Model Integrating Cell-Free DNA for Predicting Mortality: A Retrospective Analysis.

Abstract

This study aimed to investigate the clinical characteristics and risk factors of death in severe coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) during the epidemic of Omicron variants, assess the clinical value of plasma cell-free DNA (cfDNA), and construct a prediction nomogram for patient mortality. The study included 282 patients with severe COVID-19 from December 2022 to January 2023. Patients were divided into survival and death groups based on 60-day prognosis. We compared the clinical characteristics, traditional laboratory indicators, and cfDNA concentrations at admission of the two groups. Univariate and multivariate logistic analyses were performed to identify independent risk factors for death in patients with severe COVID-19. A prediction nomogram for patient mortality was constructed using R software, and an internal validation was performed. The median age of the patients included was 80.0 (71.0, 86.0) years, and 67.7% (191/282) were male. The mortality rate was 55.7% (157/282). Age, tracheal intubation, shock, cfDNA, and urea nitrogen (BUN) were the independent risk factors for death in patients with severe COVID-19, and the area under the curve (AUC) for cfDNA in predicting patient mortality was 0.805 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.713-0.898, sensitivity 81.4%, specificity 75.6%, and cut-off value 97.67 ng/mL). These factors were used to construct a prediction nomogram for patient mortality (AUC = 0.856, 95% CI: 0.814-0.899, sensitivity 78.3%, and specificity 78.4%), C-index was 0.856 (95% CI: 0.832-0.918), mean absolute error of the calibration curve was 0.007 between actual and predicted probabilities, and Hosmer-Lemeshow test showed no statistical difference (χ2=6.085, P=0.638). There was a high mortality rate among patients with severe COVID-19. cfDNA levels ≥97.67 ng/mg can significantly increase mortality. When predicting mortality in patients with severe COVID-19, a nomogram based on age, tracheal intubation, shock, cfDNA, and BUN showed high accuracy and consistency.